Market size and growth
The global lab-grown diamond market is estimated at roughly US$25–30 billion in the mid-2020s, with analysts projecting growth toward US$55–60 billion by the early 2030s — a compound growth rate around 8–10% a year, while the mined-diamond market has been broadly flat to declining.
By volume the shift is starker: lab-grown stones went from under 1% of global diamond jewelry sales in 2016 to a high-teens-to-20% share of the diamond jewelry market by value within a decade — one of the fastest substitutions in the history of luxury goods.
The United States: engagement rings flipped first
The US is the bellwether market. By 2024, roughly half of all engagement-ring center stones sold in the US were lab-grown — up from about 2% in 2018, according to industry tracker Edahn Golan and retailer data. Among buyers under 35 the share is higher still. The average lab-grown center stone bought is also larger: typically around 1.5–2 ct versus roughly 1 ct for mined, because buyers spend similar totals and take the size.
India and China: the production engines
China and India together produce the large majority of the world's lab-grown rough. China leads HPHT production, while India — centered on Surat, Gujarat, which already cuts and polishes about 90% of the world's diamonds by volume — has become the fastest-growing CVD producer. India's lab-grown exports grew so quickly that the government cut import duty on LGD seeds to zero in 2023 and funded research through IIT Madras to back the sector.
This matters for buyers in India: locally grown, locally cut stones mean shorter supply chains and some of the world's best lab-grown prices.
The price curve
A 1 ct lab-grown diamond retailed at roughly 80% of a mined equivalent's price in 2016, about 50% by 2018, around 20–30% by 2023, and 10–20% by the mid-2020s. Wholesale prices fell even faster. This is the technology cost-curve story — like solar panels or flat screens — and it is why LGDs should be bought for beauty, not resale.
Certification and quality trends
IGI certifies the majority of lab-grown stones worldwide and GIA expanded its full 4Cs grading for LGDs in the 2020s. Quality has risen alongside volume: colorless D–F, VS-clarity lab stones that were rare in 2018 are now standard inventory, and growers routinely produce certified stones above 3 ct — sizes that would carry six-figure dollar prices if mined.
Figures above are industry estimates compiled from sources including Edahn Golan Diamond Research, Paul Zimnisky Diamond Analytics, Bain & Company's Global Diamond Reports and India's GJEPC; exact numbers vary by source and year, but the direction of every trend is consistent.